The borrowers do not pay

Normal credit loss. The originator’s 15% covers a great deal of this — at the assumed 4% loss rate, a wide margin. See first loss.

The originator fails or diverts cash

This is the real risk, and it is what destroyed Goldfinch. Our protections against it are on the Risk pages, and the case study itself is here.
Early pools will have one originator. If that company fails or misreports, protections help but do not make investors whole.

A pool loses more than expected

Our loss estimate has never been measured against real data. It is a placeholder of 4%, and it will be replaced by data from the shadow pool or by the price a real credit investor demands for pALPHA. See Disclosures. Enforcing claims across borders takes years, and recovery is rarely complete. Recovery depends on courts in the originator’s home country.

Two more you should weigh

No on-chain junior tranche has yet absorbed a real credit loss as designed. Across every protocol we reviewed, first-loss capital has either been bypassed, covered off-chain, or never tested. Ours is untested too. Smart contracts can have bugs. An audit reduces this risk. It does not remove it — and PRISM has not been audited yet. See security.